No rest for the weary... Most forecasters see about 3 inches of snow coming on in the latter part of the day on Saturday. In particular, WCVB emphasized that "this is not a high confidence forecast." As of Thursday evening, here's how Boston's weatherheads saw the next storm:
WHDH: About 3 inches
WCVB: 2-4 inches but emphasized low confidence
WBZ: About 3 inches
Fox25: Too early to provide amounts given that storm was still forming. Painted Boston in a general "mix to <6 inches" stripe.
NWS: Snow and rain Saturday. Snow Saturday night. No amounts mentioned.
NECN/6: No specific amounts mentioned for Boston (mid-afternoon update).
All forecasters are also tracking potential snow events for Tuesday and Thursday of next week. Follow us on Twitter and Facebook for any updates.
Thursday, February 3, 2011
Tough Forecast, Tough Grades for Boston Weather Prognisticators
For Boston's beleaguered forecasting contingent, the two rounds of snow may as well have been a two-round boxing match. It was a struggle and a challenge, and it definitely got a little messy. In the end, most forecasters did a fair job of handling a complicated scenario.
Logan airport recorded 10.2 inches of snow for the two-day event, with approximately two-thirds of the total coming on Tuesday. In general, more snow was forecast than actually fell, particularly if you base the comparisons on forecasts issued Monday evening. Whereas the forecaster consensus seemed to suggest that the second round of snow would be larger than the first, the reverse turned out to be true. Here are the grades assigned by TBF (grading criteria can be found here):
WHDH: B- It seemed that WHDH was the first to recognize the likelihood of significant mixing for Round 2 that would ultimately reduce snow accumulations. By late on Tuesday, they came up with a final, definitive forecast that was right on for Round 2. Unfortunately, their Monday evening forecast predicted a two-day total of 10-20 inches, suggesting a more massive storm than what actually fell.
WCVB: B- WCVB's performance was rather similar to WHDH's. They also seemed ahead of the curve in seeing less snow for Round 2, lowering their prediction to 2-4 inches when others were still calling for 3-6 inches.
WBZ: D As of Tuesday morning, WBZ held on to a forecast for Round 2 of 9-12 inches for a two-day total of 15-20 inches. Ouch. Their initial prediction of 14-18 inches for Boston (they used 12-16 south of Pike and 16-20 north of Pike so we extrapolated) was the highest of any weather outlet as well. A poor performance.
FOX25: C Fox's Monday predictions were the worst of all outlets. As of Monday night, they were calling for a whopping 14-21 inches of snow. They came around to the new reality on Tuesday, pegging total accumulations to 7-12 inches. But the fall was steep from the high perch they set on Monday.
NECN: C- NECN was stuck on 12-18 inches for a long period, including as late as Tuesday morning. And even as late as Tuesday night, they were calling for 6 inches of new snow (about double what actually fell in Boston for Round 2).
National Weather Service: C+ The NWS was generally in the middle of the pack with its performance.
Note: We're tracking the collective forecasts for possible snow on Saturday.
A chronological presentation of the forecasts by weather outlets can be found here. If you have friends or family in Minneapolis and Chicago, or just want to see how groups of forecasters are faring in other cities, check The Minnesota Forecaster (our original forecaster evaluation) and The Chicago Forecaster (new). You can also follow us on Twitter and Facebook.
Logan airport recorded 10.2 inches of snow for the two-day event, with approximately two-thirds of the total coming on Tuesday. In general, more snow was forecast than actually fell, particularly if you base the comparisons on forecasts issued Monday evening. Whereas the forecaster consensus seemed to suggest that the second round of snow would be larger than the first, the reverse turned out to be true. Here are the grades assigned by TBF (grading criteria can be found here):
WHDH: B- It seemed that WHDH was the first to recognize the likelihood of significant mixing for Round 2 that would ultimately reduce snow accumulations. By late on Tuesday, they came up with a final, definitive forecast that was right on for Round 2. Unfortunately, their Monday evening forecast predicted a two-day total of 10-20 inches, suggesting a more massive storm than what actually fell.
WCVB: B- WCVB's performance was rather similar to WHDH's. They also seemed ahead of the curve in seeing less snow for Round 2, lowering their prediction to 2-4 inches when others were still calling for 3-6 inches.
WBZ: D As of Tuesday morning, WBZ held on to a forecast for Round 2 of 9-12 inches for a two-day total of 15-20 inches. Ouch. Their initial prediction of 14-18 inches for Boston (they used 12-16 south of Pike and 16-20 north of Pike so we extrapolated) was the highest of any weather outlet as well. A poor performance.
FOX25: C Fox's Monday predictions were the worst of all outlets. As of Monday night, they were calling for a whopping 14-21 inches of snow. They came around to the new reality on Tuesday, pegging total accumulations to 7-12 inches. But the fall was steep from the high perch they set on Monday.
NECN: C- NECN was stuck on 12-18 inches for a long period, including as late as Tuesday morning. And even as late as Tuesday night, they were calling for 6 inches of new snow (about double what actually fell in Boston for Round 2).
National Weather Service: C+ The NWS was generally in the middle of the pack with its performance.
Note: We're tracking the collective forecasts for possible snow on Saturday.
A chronological presentation of the forecasts by weather outlets can be found here. If you have friends or family in Minneapolis and Chicago, or just want to see how groups of forecasters are faring in other cities, check The Minnesota Forecaster (our original forecaster evaluation) and The Chicago Forecaster (new). You can also follow us on Twitter and Facebook.
A final reminder: There's nothing official or overly rigorous about our grades. While it's ultimately subjective, we do our very best to provide an objective assessment of the performance of local weathercasters based on information shared with the public.
Weathercasters Mixed on Saturday Snow Prospects
For a cumulative forecast for Saturday's possible snow event, click here.
Tuesday, February 1, 2011
Round Two Snow Totals Being Revised Downward by Most Forecasters
Ah, the vagaries of New England weather once again appear to be tripping up Boston's proudest weather prognosticators. Most weathercasters have downgraded the amount of new snow for Wednesday.
WHDH: Mostly sleet tomorrow with "not much more snow." Two-day totals of 8 to 12 (with about 8 falling Tuesday)
WCVB: 2-4 additional on Wednesday for 2-day totals of 7 to 13.
WBZ: 3 to 6 inches of snow and sleet
FOX25: 3 to 6 inches for 2-day storm total of 7 to 12.
NWS: 3 to 5 inches additional for 2-day storm total of 10 to 14.
NECN: New snow of about 6 inches for Boston on Wednesday.
The progressive forecast for these storms (from the last few days up to the present) from all weathercasters can be found here. Follow us on Twitter and Facebook for any significant updates.
The Boston Forecaster will provide grades for the various forecasters shortly after the end of precipitation. In the meantime, enjoy the slop.
Oh, and PS, we're tracking the forecasters' collective thinking on a possible snow event on Saturday. Click here for details.
As of Tuesday evening, the amount of new snow expected for Wednesday ranged from rather nominal (WHDH) to still appreciable (6 inches for NECN). Here's the summary:
WHDH: Mostly sleet tomorrow with "not much more snow." Two-day totals of 8 to 12 (with about 8 falling Tuesday)
WCVB: 2-4 additional on Wednesday for 2-day totals of 7 to 13.
WBZ: 3 to 6 inches of snow and sleet
FOX25: 3 to 6 inches for 2-day storm total of 7 to 12.
NWS: 3 to 5 inches additional for 2-day storm total of 10 to 14.
NECN: New snow of about 6 inches for Boston on Wednesday.
The progressive forecast for these storms (from the last few days up to the present) from all weathercasters can be found here. Follow us on Twitter and Facebook for any significant updates.
The Boston Forecaster will provide grades for the various forecasters shortly after the end of precipitation. In the meantime, enjoy the slop.
Oh, and PS, we're tracking the forecasters' collective thinking on a possible snow event on Saturday. Click here for details.
Considerable Variation Among Forecasters for Two-Round Snow Event
Today, and particularly tomorrow, will provide a stiff test for Boston weather prognosticators. Most agree that the first round today will be essentially all snow (and relatively light and fluffy at that) and the second round will feature a degree of mixing. However, some forecasters think today's snow will be the bigger snowfall while others think tomorrow's storm will be the bigger hitter.
WBZ is the most bullish on total snow, predicting 15-20 inches when all is said and done on Thursday. WBZ expects snow from Round 2 to be more than Round 1; WHDH has the reverse. This appears to be both a tough storm scenario to predict and a tough scenario for weather observers to determine exactly what's being predicted.
As of Tuesday morning, here's how the area's forecasters saw the 2-round monster:
WHDH (4): Round 1: 7-10, Round 2: 3-5
WCVB (5): Round 1: 4-8, Round 2: 4-8
WBZ/Accuweather (2):Round 1: 4-8, Round 2: 9-12 (Total 15-20)
FOX25: 10-12 total
National Weather Service: 4-8 inches Tuesday; 1-3 Tuesday night; 4-6 Wed.
NECN (6): Round 1: 6 inches. Two-storm totals of 12-18 inches
You can follow the progress of the forecaster predictions here. We're also on Twitter and Facebook.
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| "Really? I have more of this to deal with?" |
As of Tuesday morning, here's how the area's forecasters saw the 2-round monster:
WHDH (4): Round 1: 7-10, Round 2: 3-5
WCVB (5): Round 1: 4-8, Round 2: 4-8
WBZ/Accuweather (2):Round 1: 4-8, Round 2: 9-12 (Total 15-20)
FOX25: 10-12 total
National Weather Service: 4-8 inches Tuesday; 1-3 Tuesday night; 4-6 Wed.
NECN (6): Round 1: 6 inches. Two-storm totals of 12-18 inches
You can follow the progress of the forecaster predictions here. We're also on Twitter and Facebook.
Monday, January 31, 2011
Forecasters Agree on Two Bouts of Snow; Disagree on Total Snowfall
While Chicago and parts of the Midwest enjoy a Nor'easter-style blizzard on Tuesday, the Boston weather gurus see quite a dose coming this way as well. There is consensus that snow will arrive in two separate episodes, but much less agreement on the total amount of white come late Wednesday. But that means that when The Boston Forecaster (TBF) weathercaster grades come out late on Wednesday, some will receive high marks and some not so much.
As of mid-evening on Monday, here's how the various weather outlets saw the coming 1-2 punch. We'll update the various forecasters' predictions as often as they change.
WHDH (4): 3-6 by nightfall Tuesday. Snow (some sleet south of MA Pike). Two-day storm totals from 10 to 20 inches
WCVB (5): By Wednesday, 12-18 west of Boston, 12 in Boston; lesser amounts southeast of Boston.
WBZ/Accuweather (2): 3-6 inches Tuesday; Wed 12-16. Total 16-20 (12-16 south of Pike)
FOX25: 4-6 inches Tuesday; 6-12 snow/sleet Wednesday
National Weather Service: 4-8 inches Tuesday; 1-3 Tuesday night; mix Wed. Total 12-16 through Wed. evening.
NECN (6): 12-18 inches for two-storm totals (18-24 north of Route 2)
You can follow the progress of the forecaster predictions here. We're also on Twitter and Facebook.
Pull Out the Red Pens ... It's Time to Grade Boston's Weathercasters
I've always been intrigued by the different snow forecasts that can be produced by different people with access to the same information. This blog will be dedicated to summarizing the forecasts of local Boston weather forecasters in the days preceding a forecast of snow or other significant inclement weather.
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