tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27569276340772859202024-02-07T11:32:04.109-06:00The Boston ForecasterPutting Boston's Weathercasters to the TestBillhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02905775514055182861noreply@blogger.comBlogger14125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2756927634077285920.post-5642886377098067182011-02-12T12:30:00.000-06:002011-02-12T12:30:52.944-06:00The Weather Channel Gives Boston an A+ on Winter SeasonSince we're in the (entertainment) business of grading weathercasters, we thought we'd pass this along. The Weather Channel provided <a href="http://www.weather.com/outlook/weather-news/news/articles/winter-season-snowcard_2011-02-10?page=2">grades for the winter season</a> to date. Boston was given an A+. If that gives you some sense of civic pride, soak it up! According to TWC, 39 percent of Boston's average seasonal snowfall has yet to fall.Billhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02905775514055182861noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2756927634077285920.post-91689358828120416792011-02-08T23:04:00.001-06:002011-02-08T23:04:45.970-06:00Time To Catch a BreathIt looks like a relatively uneventful next week or so according to Boston 's finest weathercasters (if you don't count the bitter cold for the next couple of days). Perhaps an appropriate time for winter reflection.<br />
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What do you think of the winter so far? Weigh in with the poll question to the right.Billhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02905775514055182861noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2756927634077285920.post-30654092929515774502011-02-07T19:36:00.001-06:002011-02-07T19:36:56.487-06:00Tuesday: An Inch or Less ... Unless You Follow FoxWith the exception of Fox25, forecasters are pretty unanimous in seeing an inch or less of snow in Boston tomorrow as of forecasts issued during the evening on Monday. Fox is the lone exception, forecasting 1 to 2 inches of snow for Boston.Billhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02905775514055182861noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2756927634077285920.post-77311673259541244912011-02-06T10:34:00.003-06:002011-02-07T16:24:32.611-06:00Grades for Feb. 5 StormYou may recall that before we'd fully digested the last snowstorm, many forecasters were talking about the train-like procession of snowstorms that were going to threaten Boston. The first car on that last train left Boston yesterday with nary a flake, leaving a handful of forecasters left to explain where things went wrong.<br />
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Here are the grades we've assigned (and yes, they're subjective, but based on <a href="https://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0ApMK5lrd3TqkdDd2YXhqcTMzTUw4bzU2Q0RlZTBQZ3c&hl=en&authkey=CNmc1e4P#gid=0">objective information</a>) for yesterday's event:<br />
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<span style="color: blue;">WHDH:</span> <span style="color: red;">C+</span> On Tuesday evening, WHDH noted that yesterday's storm would "not be a big deal." True, indeed. They can't be accused of being alarmists. Still, as recently as Thursday evening, they were "thinking about 3 inches for Boston."<br />
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<span style="color: blue;">WCVB:</span> <span style="color: red;">B</span> WCVB never suggested yesterday's would be a big storm. They emphasized that their prediction was not a high-confidence forecast so notice was appropriately served. (Expressing lack of confidence is not a bad thing; see also the <a href="http://bostonforecaster.blogspot.com/2011/02/from-tbf-soapbox-weather-watchers-bill.html">Weather Watcher's Bill of Rights</a>.) And by Friday evening, they no longer mentioned any accumulations while others clung on to the possibility of a coating or an inch.<br />
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<span style="color: blue;">WBZ:</span> <span style="color: red;">D</span> WBZ's performance gives credence to the skepticism about so-called "weather terrorists." From the outset, they used terms like "snowstorm" and "big snowmaker." On Wednesday evening, they predicted 4-8 inch totals.<br />
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<span style="color: blue;">FOX25:</span> <span style="color: red;">C+</span> Sufficiently conservative in their assessment throughout. They noted a likely changeover to rain on Tuesday evening. They placed Boston in a "mix to up to 6 inch" potential category on Thursday evening, which clearly communicated their ambiguous feelings about the forecast. However, even with the wide range, there was hardly an mix to speak of.<br />
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<span style="color: blue;">NWS:</span> <span style="color: red;">B</span> Snow amounts were never mentioned in NWS forecasts until Friday evening when they mentioned the possibility of up to an inch at the end of the storm. Still, they clearly expected more of yesterday's event to include snow than what actually dropped from the sky. <br />
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<span style="color: blue;">NECN:</span> <span style="color: red;">D+</span> On Monday, NECN warned, "chance of snow or mostly snow on Saturday ... could be another one." And Santa Claus may make an appearance in July. By Wednesday evening, they acknowledged the storm wouldn't be as heavy as past storms but still included "plowable" in their forecast.<br />
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Follow us on <a href="http://www.twitter.com/bostnforecaster">Twitter</a> and <a href="http://www.facebook.com/home.php#%21/pages/The-Boston-Forecaster/160235927358981">Facebook</a> for any updates.Billhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02905775514055182861noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2756927634077285920.post-78791857836365297322011-02-06T09:36:00.018-06:002011-02-06T10:40:46.277-06:00From the TBF Soapbox: A Weather Watcher's Bill of Rights<div class="MsoNormal" style="color: red;"><i>While TBF doesn’t presuppose it’s speaking for the weather watchers of the world, we’d like to set a few expectations of Boston's weathercasters. Agree? Disagree? Tell us your thoughts.</i></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal"><b>1. Use social media for all it’s worth. </b><span style="font-weight: normal;">It doesn’t take an expert futurist to see that local television news broadcasts – indeed the concept of watching the news at a particular time of day on a big screen – are going the way of the dinosaur. Providing timely information in an electronic space is both “good weather” and, alas, good marketing. This makes good sense: Why should we have to stay up to watch a forecast when a new has already been developed.</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal"><b>2. Be consistent in the media you employ.</b><span style="font-weight: normal;"> The weather information provided on television or radio should match what’s posted on your website. There’s nothing worse than dialing up your favorite station's website only to see Friday’s forecast posted front and center when it’s Sunday. Worse yet, is when the site shows the morning forecast (which might not mention any possibility of storms) when an evening forecast has just been shown on TV that is markedly different.</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal"><b>3. Walk the talk.</b><span style="font-weight: normal;"> Keep information on your electronic media current. If you’re going to say “check out our website for the latest weather information whenever you’re on the go,” please live up to your end of the bargain.</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal"><b>4. Employ confidence ratings in your forecasts.</b><span style="font-weight: normal;"> Everyone knows that some forecasts are more slam dunks than others – or as the weather gurus might say sometimes there’s “model agreement” and sometimes there isn’t. The phrase, “I gotta tellya, this forecast has big bust potential,” are words we should hear a bit more often.</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal"><b>5. Dare to be different!</b><span style="font-weight: normal;"> It’s no secret that weathercasters (indeed, the public) has access to the same large universe of weather model information. We wouldn’t suggest that the Geico gecko could predict the weather, but it’s easy to become routine and formulaic in your approach. Use a hunch now and then, and stick yourself out. Sure, you may miss a forecast (and pay dearly on TBF – that’s a joke), but if you explain your reasoning, we admire it.</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal"><b>6. Be creative.</b><span style="font-weight: normal;"> Present information in a fresh and unorthodox way. It’s more entertaining for the viewer or reader, and can be a better way to illustrate a concept. Our favorite weather site, the </span><a href="http://voices.washingtonpost.com/capitalweathergang/">Capital Weather Gang</a><span style="font-weight: normal;">, provides rather unique forecasts when snow is in the offing. Here’s an excellent <a href="http://voices.washingtonpost.com/capitalweathergang/2010/01/late_week_snow_potential_emerg.html">example</a> of a logical, yet uncommon, way to depict possible storm outcomes:</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal">Here’s an excerpt from the blog entry:</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: blue; margin-left: 0.5in;">Here are the current accumulation possibilities that will certainly evolve in the next several days:</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: blue; margin-left: 0.5in;">30% chance: A dusting or less</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: blue; margin-left: 0.5in;">30% chance: A dusting to 1"</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: blue; margin-left: 0.5in;">20% chance: 1-5"</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: blue; margin-left: 0.5in;">20% chance: 5"+</div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal">To us, this should be a standard tactic in communicating weather scenarios.</div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal"><b>7. Give us the love all the time.</b><span style="font-weight: normal;"> Yes, the interest in weather is much higher when severe summer storms threaten and when mighty blizzards are aiming in our direction. You should be all over that, both because it affects the most people and because it reflects your presumed love and passion for weather. But if it’s 9 in the morning and a surprise, post-newscast storm has suddenly popped up that will threaten an outdoor lunch or a golf outing, get the word out! There’s real, practical value there, though it may not make for sexy headlines. Finally, weather doesn’t take the weekend off, and neither should weekend weather updates. </span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal"><b>8. Send your written forecasts past a proofreader.</b><span style="font-weight: normal;"> There’s no reason to think that a meteorologist specializing in science knowledge is necessarily going to be a good writer, but as long as information is provided through a literary medium, please check your spellings and the flow of your phrases and sentences. Ultimately, your business is detail-based and sloppiness in communication suggests potential sloppiness in the way you go about your job.</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal"><b>9. Present information every six hours (online).</b><span style="font-weight: normal;"> Why every six hours? Because that’s how often the key weather models are run. The schedule of television news broadcasts shouldn’t be the governing force behind how often you present information.</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal"><b>10. Forgo the misleading teases.</b><span style="font-weight: normal;"> Don't allow the news anchor to say, "Snow is coming <i>our</i></span> way tomorrow," and be left having to explain that northern New England may get a coating of snow. It’s insulting to us angry and puts the weathercaster in an instant uphill battle for credibility.</div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal"><b>11. Tell us when you blew it.</b><span style="font-weight: normal;"> People dig honesty and it’s the best way to earn long-term credibility. If a forecast was missed, don’t skip over it or pretend it didn’t happen. Tell us <i>why</i></span> it happened – and that you’ll never make the mistake again. (Insert joking smiley face here.)<span style="font-style: normal;"></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal"><b>12. Accurate forecasts.</b><span style="font-weight: normal;"> Notice we put this one last? While ultimately, of course, this is what matters most, it’s really part of the whole way that a weather outlet should communicate with its followers. We believe that a well-explained and well-reasoned forecast is simply good communication. And that in the end, people may remember the way you communicate as much as the accuracy of your forecast. That’s our feeling, anyway.</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal">Forecasters and weather watchers alike, what do you think?</div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div>Billhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02905775514055182861noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2756927634077285920.post-30393142405849923142011-02-06T00:23:00.000-06:002011-02-06T00:23:21.081-06:00Another Week of Snowstorms? Forecasters Don't See It That Way Now<i>All that talk of another week of snowstorms that we heard last week seems to be fading. As of late Saturday night, Boston area forecasters are in general agreement that the event for Monday night/Tuesday is likely to be light. There also seems to be consensus that a late week snow possibility is likely to miss Boston to the southeast. We'll keep tracking to see if the prognostications change.</i><br />
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<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgGlsPyUCtZ0nhSbMDgWXcaAZ64ca-rovSLOvMF6x3IVkTwqcbSVPbQ7Tsdt4j7EbdBjk0fWCfx7jlP607H92FQpo_sHSHEE8LBYsWIz3vWz3ykU6giVn2HxRA17_TmEXw6eD9lpTCRAmGQ/s1600/%253Cuntitled%253E+016.jpeg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="213" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgGlsPyUCtZ0nhSbMDgWXcaAZ64ca-rovSLOvMF6x3IVkTwqcbSVPbQ7Tsdt4j7EbdBjk0fWCfx7jlP607H92FQpo_sHSHEE8LBYsWIz3vWz3ykU6giVn2HxRA17_TmEXw6eD9lpTCRAmGQ/s320/%253Cuntitled%253E+016.jpeg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Looks like this pooch will get a break from the snow blitz this week.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>Here's what the weather dudes are saying about prospects for snow on Monday night into Tuesday:<br />
<span style="color: blue;">WHDH: </span>1-3 inches possible<br />
<span style="color: blue;">WCVB: </span>light snow; not much accumulation<br />
<span style="color: blue;">WBZ:</span> a chance of showers changing to a brief period of snow early Tuesday<br />
<span style="color: blue;">FOX:</span> mixed bag of precip; not a big storm at all<br />
<span style="color: blue;">NWS:</span> snow likely Monday night and Tuesday; no mention of accumulations<br />
<span style="color: blue;">NECN:</span> Another round of snow; doesn't look too heavy.<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgGlsPyUCtZ0nhSbMDgWXcaAZ64ca-rovSLOvMF6x3IVkTwqcbSVPbQ7Tsdt4j7EbdBjk0fWCfx7jlP607H92FQpo_sHSHEE8LBYsWIz3vWz3ykU6giVn2HxRA17_TmEXw6eD9lpTCRAmGQ/s1600/%253Cuntitled%253E+016.jpeg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><br />
</a></div>Tomorrow, we'll assign grades to the local weathercasters on their performance in handling Saturday night's system. The progressive forecast by weather outlet leading up to the event can be found <a href="https://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0ApMK5lrd3TqkdDd2YXhqcTMzTUw4bzU2Q0RlZTBQZ3c&hl=en&authkey=CNmc1e4P#gid=0">here</a>.<br />
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Follow us on <a href="http://www.twitter.com/bostnforecaster">Twitter</a> and <a href="http://www.facebook.com/home.php#%21/pages/The-Boston-Forecaster/160235927358981">Facebook</a> for any updates.Billhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02905775514055182861noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2756927634077285920.post-68472520639406927782011-02-05T00:19:00.000-06:002011-02-05T00:19:21.010-06:00Boston Weather Mavens See Primarily Rain with Saturday PM EventWe love weathercasters that flash a sense of humor and irreverence every once in a while. WHDH provided a good chuckle to the Twittersphere with a late evening tweet summarizing the prediction process for this weekend's weather event.<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjaxvCTpFb_aNbujdAbN2Sm_3eqPwguqLpK8kvlXk9U8GNz3wUn69i457F_RWZvP63eVtzwAtxpkKqZerg7kjlvyEwFPZewKKI8D5E-vfHsM5EGRy1cHyy0pHRDlAFv4DObwwlJae8Y0P7s/s1600/Screen+shot+2011-02-05+at+12.01.46+AM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="118" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjaxvCTpFb_aNbujdAbN2Sm_3eqPwguqLpK8kvlXk9U8GNz3wUn69i457F_RWZvP63eVtzwAtxpkKqZerg7kjlvyEwFPZewKKI8D5E-vfHsM5EGRy1cHyy0pHRDlAFv4DObwwlJae8Y0P7s/s400/Screen+shot+2011-02-05+at+12.01.46+AM.png" width="400" /></a></div><br />
Indeed, the majority of forecasters now see this weekend's precipitation as primarily rain for Boston. None see the possibility for anything more than one inch (primarily at the tail end of the storm) and WCVB has removed virtually all mention of any snow accumulation whatsoever for Boston.<br />
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As of late Friday night, here's how the area's weathercasters saw this weekend's "event" unfolding:<br />
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<span style="color: blue;">WHDH:</span> Possibility a coating of snow as the storm departs<br />
<span style="color: blue;">WCVB:</span> Mostly rain. No accumulations of snow.<br />
<span style="color: blue;">WBZ: </span>Coating to half inch of snow possible at the end.<br />
<span style="color: blue;">FOX25:</span> Slushy coating possible<br />
<span style="color: blue;">NWS:</span> Snow accumulation up to an inch<br />
<span style="color: blue;">NECN:</span> Maybe an inch on the back side of the storm<br />
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A progressive forecast by weather outlet of this event dating back to Monday night can be found in all its beauty <a href="https://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0ApMK5lrd3TqkdDd2YXhqcTMzTUw4bzU2Q0RlZTBQZ3c&hl=en&authkey=CNmc1e4P#gid=0">here</a>.<br />
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All forecasters are also tracking potential snow events for Tuesday and Thursday of next week but there is certainly nothing inevitable with either event. Follow us on <a href="http://www.twitter.com/bostnforecaster">Twitter</a> and <a href="http://www.facebook.com/home.php#%21/pages/The-Boston-Forecaster/160235927358981">Facebook</a> for any updates.Billhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02905775514055182861noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2756927634077285920.post-84076227149154006032011-02-03T18:58:00.000-06:002011-02-03T18:58:06.424-06:00Most Forecasters See About 3 Inches for Saturday StormNo rest for the weary... Most forecasters see about 3 inches of snow coming on in the latter part of the day on Saturday. In particular, WCVB emphasized that "this is not a high confidence forecast." As of Thursday evening, here's how Boston's weatherheads saw the next storm:<br />
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<span style="color: blue;">WHDH:</span> About 3 inches<br />
<span style="color: blue;">WCVB:</span> 2-4 inches but emphasized low confidence<br />
<span style="color: blue;">WBZ:</span> About 3 inches<br />
<span style="color: blue;">Fox25:</span> Too early to provide amounts given that storm was still forming. Painted Boston in a general "mix to <6 inches" stripe.<br />
<span style="color: blue;">NWS:</span> Snow and rain Saturday. Snow Saturday night. No amounts mentioned.<br />
<span style="color: blue;">NECN/6:</span> No specific amounts mentioned for Boston (mid-afternoon update).<br />
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All forecasters are also tracking potential snow events for Tuesday and Thursday of next week. Follow us on <a href="http://www.twitter.com/bostnforecaster">Twitter</a> and <a href="http://www.facebook.com/home.php#%21/pages/The-Boston-Forecaster/160235927358981">Facebook</a> for any updates.Billhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02905775514055182861noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2756927634077285920.post-10831863474663993842011-02-03T01:40:00.000-06:002011-02-03T01:51:30.847-06:00Tough Forecast, Tough Grades for Boston Weather PrognisticatorsFor Boston's beleaguered forecasting contingent, the two rounds of snow may as well have been a two-round boxing match. It was a struggle and a challenge, and it definitely got a little messy. In the end, most forecasters did a fair job of handling a complicated scenario.<br />
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Logan airport recorded 10.2 inches of snow for the two-day event, with approximately two-thirds of the total coming on Tuesday. In general, more snow was forecast than actually fell, particularly if you base the comparisons on forecasts issued Monday evening. Whereas the forecaster consensus seemed to suggest that the second round of snow would be larger than the first, the reverse turned out to be true. Here are the grades assigned by TBF (grading criteria can be found <a href="http://chicagoforecaster.blogspot.com/p/grading-criteria.html">here</a>):<br />
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<span style="color: blue;">WHDH:</span> <span style="color: red;">B-</span> It seemed that WHDH was the first to recognize the likelihood of significant mixing for Round 2 that would ultimately reduce snow accumulations. By late on Tuesday, they came up with a final, definitive forecast that was right on for Round 2. Unfortunately, their Monday evening forecast predicted a two-day total of 10-20 inches, suggesting a more massive storm than what actually fell.<br />
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<span style="color: blue;">WCVB:</span> <span style="color: red;">B-</span> WCVB's performance was rather similar to WHDH's. They also seemed ahead of the curve in seeing less snow for Round 2, lowering their prediction to 2-4 inches when others were still calling for 3-6 inches.<br />
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<span style="color: blue;">WBZ:</span> <span style="color: red;">D</span> As of Tuesday morning, WBZ held on to a forecast for Round 2 of 9-12 inches for a two-day total of 15-20 inches. Ouch. Their initial prediction of 14-18 inches for Boston (they used 12-16 south of Pike and 16-20 north of Pike so we extrapolated) was the highest of any weather outlet as well. A poor performance.<br />
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<span style="color: blue;">FOX25:</span> <span style="color: red;">C</span> Fox's Monday predictions were the worst of all outlets. As of Monday night, they were calling for a whopping 14-21 inches of snow. They came around to the new reality on Tuesday, pegging total accumulations to 7-12 inches. But the fall was steep from the high perch they set on Monday.<br />
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<span style="color: blue;">NECN:</span> <span style="color: red;">C-</span> NECN was stuck on 12-18 inches for a long period, including as late as Tuesday morning. And even as late as Tuesday night, they were calling for 6 inches of new snow (about double what actually fell in Boston for Round 2).<br />
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<span style="color: blue;">National Weather Service: </span><span style="color: red;">C+</span> The NWS was generally in the middle of the pack with its performance.<br />
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Note: We're tracking the collective forecasts for possible snow on <a href="http://bostonforecaster.blogspot.com/2011/02/weathercasters-mixed-on-saturday-snow.html">Saturday</a>. <br />
<br />
A chronological presentation of the forecasts by weather outlets can be found <a href="https://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0ApMK5lrd3TqkdGhyOEI1MmU3WHdETTJFeFpOdm84cFE&hl=en&authkey=CM2Oz7IG#gid=0">here</a>. If you have friends or family in Minneapolis and Chicago, or just want to see how groups of forecasters are faring in other cities, check <a href="http://www.minnesotaforecaster.com/">The Minnesota Forecaster</a> (our original forecaster evaluation) and <a href="http://chicagoforecaster.blogspot.com/">The Chicago Forecaster</a> (new). You can also follow us on <a href="http://www.twitter.com/bostnforecaster">Twitter</a> and <a href="http://www.facebook.com/home.php#%21/pages/The-Boston-Forecaster/160235927358981">Facebook</a>.<br />
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<div style="color: red;"><i>A final reminder: There's nothing official or overly rigorous about our grades. While it's ultimately subjective, we do our very best to provide an objective assessment of the performance of local weathercasters based on information shared with the public.</i></div>Billhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02905775514055182861noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2756927634077285920.post-43691605239122565412011-02-03T00:47:00.000-06:002011-02-03T01:48:03.743-06:00Weathercasters Mixed on Saturday Snow ProspectsFor a cumulative forecast for Saturday's possible snow event, click <a href="https://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0ApMK5lrd3TqkdDd2YXhqcTMzTUw4bzU2Q0RlZTBQZ3c&hl=en&authkey=CNmc1e4P#gid=0">here</a>.Billhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02905775514055182861noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2756927634077285920.post-76462604421940280652011-02-01T19:59:00.000-06:002011-02-01T20:05:32.864-06:00Round Two Snow Totals Being Revised Downward by Most Forecasters<i>Ah, the vagaries of New England weather once again appear to be tripping up Boston's proudest weather prognosticators. Most weathercasters have downgraded the amount of new snow for Wednesday.</i><br />
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<div style="color: red;">As of Tuesday evening, the amount of new snow expected for Wednesday ranged from rather nominal (WHDH) to still appreciable (6 inches for NECN). Here's the summary:</div><br />
<span style="color: blue;">WHDH:</span> Mostly sleet tomorrow with "not much more snow." Two-day totals of 8 to 12 (with about 8 falling Tuesday)<br />
<span style="color: blue;">WCVB:</span> 2-4 additional on Wednesday for 2-day totals of 7 to 13.<br />
<span style="color: blue;">WBZ:</span> 3 to 6 inches of snow and sleet<br />
<span style="color: blue;">FOX25:</span> 3 to 6 inches for 2-day storm total of 7 to 12.<br />
<span style="color: blue;">NWS: </span>3 to 5 inches additional for 2-day storm total of 10 to 14.<br />
<span style="color: blue;">NECN:</span> New snow of about 6 inches for Boston on Wednesday.<br />
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The progressive forecast for these storms (from the last few days up to the present) from all weathercasters can be found <a href="https://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0ApMK5lrd3TqkdGhyOEI1MmU3WHdETTJFeFpOdm84cFE&hl=en&authkey=CM2Oz7IG&pli=1#gid=0">here</a>. Follow us on <a href="http://www.twitter.com/bostnforecaster">Twitter</a> and <a href="http://www.facebook.com/pages/The-Boston-Forecaster/160235927358981?ref=ts">Facebook</a> for any significant updates.<br />
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The Boston Forecaster will provide grades for the various forecasters shortly after the end of precipitation. In the meantime, enjoy the slop.<br />
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<b>Oh, and PS</b>, we're tracking the forecasters' collective thinking on a possible snow event on Saturday. Click here for <a href="https://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0ApMK5lrd3TqkdDd2YXhqcTMzTUw4bzU2Q0RlZTBQZ3c&hl=en#gid=0">details</a>.Billhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02905775514055182861noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2756927634077285920.post-51882712057965164732011-02-01T09:47:00.000-06:002011-02-01T09:47:46.375-06:00Considerable Variation Among Forecasters for Two-Round Snow EventToday, and particularly tomorrow, will provide a stiff test for Boston weather prognosticators. Most agree that the first round today will be essentially all snow (and relatively light and fluffy at that) and the second round will feature a degree of mixing. However, some forecasters think today's snow will be the bigger snowfall while others think tomorrow's storm will be the bigger hitter.<br />
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<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiccdSissnUS-8F6SPBnrGT6OwTSZs2xR5m7K39BRR68FfJsKh2-zSFdA2UKBzd3869LkyuwjbKtsqc2wNzPGVT_1OgjmimItO6yhKr1ntNnn15192iFvPN7XiJ2tvp53rECM9mDERtLZmG/s1600/SnowyEddie.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="212" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiccdSissnUS-8F6SPBnrGT6OwTSZs2xR5m7K39BRR68FfJsKh2-zSFdA2UKBzd3869LkyuwjbKtsqc2wNzPGVT_1OgjmimItO6yhKr1ntNnn15192iFvPN7XiJ2tvp53rECM9mDERtLZmG/s320/SnowyEddie.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">"Really? I have more of this to deal with?"</td></tr>
</tbody></table>WBZ is the most bullish on total snow, predicting 15-20 inches when all is said and done on Thursday. WBZ expects snow from Round 2 to be more than Round 1; WHDH has the reverse. This appears to be both a tough storm scenario to predict and a tough scenario for weather observers to determine exactly what's being predicted.<br />
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As of Tuesday morning, here's how the area's forecasters saw the 2-round monster:<br />
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<span style="color: blue;">WHDH (4)</span>: Round 1: 7-10, Round 2: 3-5<br />
<span style="color: blue;">WCVB (5):</span> Round 1: 4-8, Round 2: 4-8<br />
<span style="color: blue;">WBZ/Accuweather (2)</span>:Round 1: 4-8, Round 2: 9-12 (Total 15-20)<br />
<span style="color: blue;">FOX25:</span> 10-12 total<br />
<span style="color: blue;">National Weather Service: </span>4-8 inches Tuesday; 1-3 Tuesday night; 4-6 Wed.<br />
<span style="color: blue;">NECN (6)</span>: Round 1: 6 inches. Two-storm totals of 12-18 inches<br />
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You can follow the progress of the forecaster predictions <a href="https://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0ApMK5lrd3TqkdGhyOEI1MmU3WHdETTJFeFpOdm84cFE&hl=en&authkey=CM2Oz7IG">here</a>. We're also on <a href="http://www.twitter.com/bostnforecaster">Twitter</a> and <a href="http://www.facebook.com/pages/The-Boston-Forecaster/160235927358981?ref=ts">Facebook</a>.Billhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02905775514055182861noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2756927634077285920.post-43102503111246244212011-01-31T17:29:00.000-06:002011-01-31T19:09:51.640-06:00Forecasters Agree on Two Bouts of Snow; Disagree on Total Snowfall<div style="color: red;"><i>While Chicago and parts of the Midwest enjoy a Nor'easter-style blizzard on Tuesday, the Boston weather gurus see quite a dose coming this way as well. There is consensus that snow will arrive in two separate episodes, but much less agreement on the total amount of white come late Wednesday. But that means that when The Boston Forecaster (TBF) weathercaster grades come out late on Wednesday, some will receive high marks and some not so much.</i></div><br />
As of mid-evening on Monday, here's how the various weather outlets saw the coming 1-2 punch. We'll update the various forecasters' predictions as often as they change.<br />
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<span style="color: blue;">WHDH (4)</span>: 3-6 by nightfall Tuesday. Snow (some sleet south of MA Pike). Two-day storm totals from 10 to 20 inches<br />
<span style="color: blue;">WCVB (5):</span> By Wednesday, 12-18 west of Boston, 12 in Boston; lesser amounts southeast of Boston.<br />
<span style="color: blue;">WBZ/Accuweather (2)</span>: 3-6 inches Tuesday; Wed 12-16. Total 16-20 (12-16 south of Pike)<br />
<span style="color: blue;">FOX25:</span> 4-6 inches Tuesday; 6-12 snow/sleet Wednesday<br />
<span style="color: blue;">National Weather Service: </span>4-8 inches Tuesday; 1-3 Tuesday night; mix Wed. Total 12-16 through Wed. evening.<br />
<span style="color: blue;">NECN (6)</span>: 12-18 inches for two-storm totals (18-24 north of Route 2) <br />
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You can follow the progress of the forecaster predictions <a href="https://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0ApMK5lrd3TqkdGhyOEI1MmU3WHdETTJFeFpOdm84cFE&hl=en&authkey=CM2Oz7IG">here</a>. We're also on <a href="http://www.twitter.com/bostnforecaster">Twitter</a> and <a href="http://www.facebook.com/pages/The-Boston-Forecaster/160235927358981?ref=ts">Facebook</a>.Billhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02905775514055182861noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2756927634077285920.post-88378915426122539532011-01-31T16:44:00.000-06:002011-01-31T16:44:19.611-06:00Pull Out the Red Pens ... It's Time to Grade Boston's WeathercastersI've always been intrigued by the different snow forecasts that can be produced by different people with access to the same information. This blog will be dedicated to summarizing the forecasts of local Boston weather forecasters in the days preceding a forecast of snow or other significant inclement weather.Billhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02905775514055182861noreply@blogger.com0